From Old to New China: Tectonic Shifts for Asia in 2016 ?

Mardi 12 janvier 2016

Petit déjeuner éco avec Alicia Garcia Herrero et Trinh Nguyen (Natixis)

Notre Club exclusif rassemble pour ses Petits déjeuners éco des spécialistes et des dirigeants d’entreprises pour aborder sous un angle business les développements économiques, financiers et stratégiques de la région Asie-Pacifique.

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2016 will be a crucial year for China’s transformation into a consumption/service-based economy. These tectonic shifts from an Old to a New China will not only create shockwaves in China but also in the rest of Asia with key winners and losers. Natixis’ expert will focus on five key themes: the currency, demographic changes, the shift in growth model, changes in the consumption pattern and an increasingly assertive geopolitical agenda. Is the transformation towards a New China to happen according to plan? Such outcome hinges on the Chinese government’s ability to put up with the unavoidable costs of such shift. On of the key issues is to determine whether 2016 will be a consumption story or an export motivated one, namely the path of the RMB and the “corporate disruption” that the Chinese government will be willing to accept.

Alicia Garcia Herrero  is Chief Economist for Asia Pacific at NATIXIS based in Hong Kong. In previous years Alicia held the following positions: Chief Economist for Emerging Markets at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA), Member of the Asian Research Program at the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), Head of the International Economy Division of the Bank of Spain, Member of the Counsel to the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB), Head of Emerging Economies at the Research Department of Banco Santander and Economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
 Alicia has always combined her career in the private and public sectors with a commitment to applied research and teaching. Alicia serves as a non-resident Senior Fellow in several think tanks, in particular BRUEGEL in Brussels, Emerging Market Institute at Johnson Graduate School of Management (Cornell) and at Real Instituto El Cano in Madrid. She is also adjunct professor at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) and visiting faculty at China-Europe International Business School (CEIBS) in Shanghai. Alicia is also a member of the Council of Advisor of the Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research (HKIMR).
 Alicia holds a PhD in Economics from George Washington University and has published extensively in refereed journals and books. Alicia is also very active with international media (Bloomberg, CNBC, Reuters, Financial Times and Wall Street Journal among others).


Trinh Nguyen joined Natixis in October 2015 as a Senior Economist covering Emerging Asia. She previously worked at HSBC as an ASEAN economist from August 2011 to October 2015. She was awarded best economist on Vietnam by Asia Money and was consistently top-ranked and well-recognized for her market-moving, insightful and accurate forecasts and expertise on Southeast Asia. She holds a Master of Arts in  International Affairs and International Economics with a specialization on Southeast Asia from Johns Hopkins University.

La rencontre sera tenue en anglais et animée par Jean-François Di Meglio.

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Asia Centre Fondé en août 2005 par François Godement et une équipe de chercheurs et experts de l’Asie contemporaine, Asia Centre a pour objectif de conduire des recherches sur l’Asie contemporaine, d'organiser des débats et de valoriser, par des publications, les résultats de ces recherches et rencontres.